As you know, I have not posted thoughts on Latin America for some time. Covid has been a major distraction from normal activities. Confined to my desk at home for most of the last year or so, I have devoted considerable time to investigating populism in general and its particular manifestation in Latin America in particular. In an attempt to understand Chavez’s enormous popular appeal in Venezuela, and its ensuing tragic consequences, I began to read Hugo Chavez’s speeches, focusing on the ones delivered to the general public by nation-wide television and radio and those delivered to poor communities when he toured the country at election time. This made for fascinating reading; I came to understand the way in which history and context had shaped both the man, his political style, and, by extension, his enormous appeal. Venezuelans loved and reviled him; for much of his time in power those how loved him probably outnumbered those who hated him.
Read MoreWhile the term “banana republic” refers to just about any form of political instability occurring in Latin America, the term originally arose with reference to Central America (Honduras, Guatemala, Nicaragua, Panama, El Salvador) where the American-owned United and Standard Fruit companies engaged in fruit production and export, and often dominated economically and politically. In these countries legitimately elected regimes were overthrown, often with US complicity, if not direct military intervention.
Read MoreMuch of the media has focused on the behavior of Jair Bolsonaro, Brazil’s current populist right president, comparing him to Donald Trump (“Trump of the Tropics”) and to the right populists of Europe. In Latin America, both left and right populisms struggle to recruit political support in deeply divided societies. These efforts reflect and exacerbate the deep inequalities and divisions peculiar to the region.
Read MoreGlobalization has failed Latin America. It created the vulnerability that is making it so difficult for the countries of the region to address the developing social tragedy brought about by the pandemic. A recent OECD report suggests that the way forward is for countries to negotiate a “new social contract”—one that involves a revamping of institutions and social priorities.
Read MoreLatin America is now the epicenter of the coronavirus epidemic: while the region accounts for 8% of the world population, it now accounts for nearly 30% of global fatalities. The Covid-19 pandemic is aggravating already deteriorating social conditions and increasing political turmoil—both developments set in motion by the decline of commodity prices that began in 2011. The pandemic has also put a serious strain on already weak health care services. A United Nations report warns that if the region is unable to control the spread of the disease, an estimated 45 million people will fall below the poverty line.
Read MoreWith the decline in commodity prices and the receding of the pink tide (the recent removal from power/defeat of various populist left governments), we are now seeing an emergence of two linked phenomenon: a return to neoliberal policies and the emergence of the political right, increasingly with populist features. Populist right movements are garnering significant electoral support; successfully recruiting supporters from a wide spectrum of social sectors, including from among the poor—the very part of the population whose expansion is linked to neoliberal reform. While the most notable case is of Brazil under Jair Bolsonaro, another worrisome case is that of Costa Rica—the very country widely assumed to be one of the region’s strongest bastions of liberal democracy and civil liberties.
Read MoreSince the decline of commodity prices in 2013, Latin America has witnessed mounting political turmoil: widespread protests against transportation fare increases in Chile, against the removal of fuel subsidies in Ecuador, and over the legitimacy of the Bolivian presidential election. Brazil’s period of political upheaval began earlier with protests against corruption, leading to the impeachment and removal of President Dilma Rousseff. Following these events, Brazilians elected populist right president, Jair Bolsonaro, whose racist remarks about the country’s Indigenous people combined with his accelerated burning of the Amazon, have aroused international and domestic disapprobation. In a worrisome development, Latin American presidents have been appearing in public flanked by their Generals, suggesting that political leaders are at a loss as to how to address the growing political chaos. Most observers accept that the military played a key role in Evo Morales’ exist from power. Latin American history is rife with export commodity dependence, popular unrest (if not insurgency), political repression, authoritarian rule, and military meddling (if not direct intervention). The transition to democracy and market liberalization of the 1980s was supposed to end all of this. They have not.
Read MoreThe U.S. has just instituted a new round of even more devastating economic sanctions as part of its ongoing campaign to oust Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro from power. These sanctions, like past efforts, will not contribute to Venezuelan democracy. As explained in an earlier post, the roots of the Venezuelan crisis are complex. The international reaction to the Venezuelan case illustrates the extent to which the U.S. (and now Canada and Europe) fail to understand Latin America’s political struggles. Forcing a particular regime from power will not solve anything; it will not make Venezuela a more democratic or just society.
Read MoreTo many observers the Maduro regime has remained surprisingly resilient. His government withstood widespread opposition protests through the spring of 2019. It has survived the recognition by over 50 countries of opposition Juan Guaidó as the country’s rightful ruler, a move that severely challenged the regime’s legitimacy. The mainstream media’s excited anticipation of Maduro’s fall from power reached its height with Guaidó’s attempt to instigate a military uprising. The uprising failed, however, and opposition protests have petered out.
Read MoreWith the third wave of democracy, which began in the 1970s, most countries instituted presidential term limits stipulating limits on the number of times presidents could be re-elected. Since then, an increasing number of countries have abandoned these limits, leading many observers to identify yet another piece of evidence that authoritarianism is on the rise. This phenomenon has been especially evident in Latin America where term limits have been a long-standing feature of constitutions; from the nineteenth century, reformers have sought to limit the hold on power of personalistic caudillo leaders. The link between authoritarian leadership and the removal of term limits was highlighted recently when President Trump was reported to have applauded Chinese President Xi Jinping’s removal of that country’s two-term presidential limit, remarking that “its great. . .[that] he was able to do that.” The obvious conclusion is that countries should strive to maintain or re-institute term limits in order to restrict unscrupulous authoritarian and increasingly populist leaders.
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